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Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change a report by the National Research Council


Wednesday, March 15, 2017 3:30 PM - 5:30 PM

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change a report by the National Research Council

 

A burgeoning and controversial field in climate science is the attribution of extreme events. Attribution in this context means "The process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assignment of statistical confidence" and there are well-developed methods for doing attribution.  The past two Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have had entire chapters on Detection and Attribution, but they have focused almost entirely on attribution of mean changes (e.g., annual mean temperature).  At the same time, media interest in linking individual extreme events (floods, droughts, hurricanes, and blizzards, to name a few) to climate change has strained the ability of scientists to communicate what is known in a rapidly evolving field.

 

The National Research Council, with backing from the president of the National Academy of Sciences and six other sponsors, undertook a fast track study which will be released on March 11, just 6 months after the committee began its work.  This presentation, by one of the authors of the report, will describe the field of detection and attribution, and the report's main findings and recommendations.  


Burt Hall (campus map)
193
Free
Phil Mote
pmote at coas.oregonstate.edu
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