Oregon State University

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Event Details

Should I stay or should I go?

Tsunami evacuation modeling along the Oregon Coast

Tuesday, February 13, 2018 6:00 PM - 7:30 PM

Presentation with Dan Cox, Haizhong Wang, and Lori Cramer

In Oregon, a magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) represents one of the most pressing natural coastal hazards. Since the mid-1980’s scientific evidence has underscored the possibility of such an extreme event, and it has taken at least another decade or more before public attitudes and policy have begun to adapt to this new hazard. Life safety is a pressing issue for the near-field CSZ tsunami hazard for several reasons. First, there is limited time from the start of the earthquake to when the tsunami arrives to the shore–20 to 30 minutes depending on location–compared to several hours for the case of a distant tsunami across the Pacific Ocean. Second, evacuations will be self-initiated, relying on an individual’s perception of risk and knowledge of correct course of action. And third, unlike other natural disasters such as river floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes which are more easily imagined, the rarity of tsunami events in the U.S. make the tsunami scenario difficult to visualize. The talk presents the results of an agent-based tsunami evacuation model to explore how decisions on when to leave, route choice, mode (on foot or by car) and unplanned disruptions affect life safety. Our work is applied to case studies:  one in Seaside Oregon and a second at South Beach State Park in Oregon. The talk also discusses evacuation drills with role playing and a pilot exhibit at the HSMC designed to understand how people perceive tsunami risks in Oregon.


LaSells Stewart Center (campus map)
OSU 150
events at oregonstate.edu
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