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Willamette Water 2100 Cyberseminar - Allison Danner, M.S. Candidate

Will We Have to Change the Rules? The Implications of Climate Change for Reservoir Operations at Oregon's Cougar Dam

Thursday, March 21, 2013 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM

This seminar is the thesis Defense by Allison Danner, MS Candidate in Water Resources Engineering. Her thesis advisor is Gordon Grant, US Forest Service and Courtesy Professor, Departments of Geosciences, Forest Engineering, Resources & Management, and Forest Ecosystems & Society.

Abstract: Dams and reservoirs are important components of many water resource systems, but their operation may be vulnerable to climate change due to the links between streamflow and operations. Reservoirs are dependent on inflow in order to operate and climate change is predicted to have significant effects on streamflow timing and magnitude. This study of a multipurpose reservoir in Oregon’s Willamette Basin characterizes the relationships between streamflow and reservoir operations and assesses risk to future operations under climate change scenarios. Statistical metrics were developed to explore relationships between climate and operational characteristics. Results show that inflow volume is the most important factor in driving operational performance, while streamflow timing is important to a lesser degree. Potential future changes affecting reservoir operations are assessed using a two-part modeling approach to assess the risk to operational performance under climate change scenarios. Synthetic streamflow sequences for historical and future climate were generated using a stochastic model that integrates output from a physically based hydrologic model together with forcing from downscaled global climate model results. These synthetic streamflow sequences are the basis for simulating reservoir operations using a simple operations model. In comparing historical reservoir performance to future performance and assessing the likelihood of changes, flood control and late summer conservation season operations are at the greatest risk under climate change scenarios.

The seminar can be viewed in person (OSU Campus, Kidder 202) or online via streaming (http://live.oregonstate.edu). If you watch online, please sign in to the chat window with: First Name_Last Name_OrganizationAbbreviation so you can ask questions during and after the seminar and we can track who is watching online. You will need to use underscores rather than spaces when you sign in and there is a limit of about 30 characters.

Kidder Hall (campus map)
202
Maria Wright
1 541 737 6148
maria.wright at oregonstate.edu
Water/Watershed Institut
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