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Event Details

CEOAS - Special Seminar - Fernando J. Méndez, Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental

"Orbital-scale influence on the occurrence and magnitude of abrupt climate change: an application of extreme value theory to paleoclimate observations"

Thursday, October 17, 2013 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM

The occurrence and magnitude of abrupt temperature changes in the last 250,000 years are analyzed using time-dependent statistical models. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to model the frequency of abrupt events and a time-dependent version of the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze the climatic variability of the magnitude. The models are parameterized in terms of the Milankovitch-forced covariates. The statistical approach allows the quantification of the eccentricity, precession, obliquity and insolation influence in the warm and cold abrupt climate changes.

Burt Hall (campus map)
Biana Weatherford
bweatherford at coas.oregonstate.edu
Earth, Ocean & Atmo Sci
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